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CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 3:00pm EST
go full speed over the fiscal cliff if we get this deal. does he like it or not? he'll join us coming up. much more to come. don't go anywhere. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. when the doctor told me that i could smoke for the first week... i'm like...yeah, ok... little did i know that one week later i wasn't smoking. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. if you notice any of these stop taking chantix and cal
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 3:00pm EST
if a fiscal cliff deal does not get done and fast. >> i'm the founder and ceo of unilife corp rage. if the fiscal cliff issue doesn't get resolved, there's no question the usa economy is going to go into recession. we closed down our manufacturing in china and relocated our manufacturing to the usa. for other companies to consider following our lead, they need to trust that our leaders in washington will actually lead. think outside the box. create incentive for businesses to invest in the u.s. economy. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 you should've seen me today. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 when the spx crossed above its 50-day moving average, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i saw the trend. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it looked really strong. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i jumped right on it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 since i've switched to charles schwab... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 ...i've been finding opportunities like this tdd# 1-800-345-2550 a lot more easily. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 like today, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 i was using their streetsmart edge trading platform tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and i saw a double bottom for
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 5:00am EST
course, going to be waiting with baited breath to see what happens with the fiscal cliff. thank you very much for joining us from mastercard advisers. >> terrific. thank you. >>> the u.s. economy is hanging in the balance with just five days left for congress to come up with a deal to avert the fiscal cliff. let's get to our senior economic reporter, steve leesman, with his predictions for the economy in 2013. >> reporter: >>> trying to figure out what's going to happen in 2013 depends on one very important development -- whether the u.s. goes over the fiscal cliff in a few days' time, and for how long. if it's avoided, there's considerable upside for the economy. we could see at least one and maybe two quarters of growth above 3%. the kind of growth that would put people back to work and lower the unemployment rate. why? because business has been holding back investment amid the uncertainty. unleashing business spending would add to the growth from the nascent rebound in housing and from the consumer who has hung in there despite tough times. in fact, we could see unemployment drop below 7%. although it might first rise, more work into the work force who have been discouraged but can't find work. then could it fall. as for the fed, i think the market may be overst
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 2:00pm EST
sensitive the dow was. >> yes 37. >> tick by tick pz we were up 75 to 78 handles and then, bam, sold off. >> i think that's exactly what market and investors are telling you. they don't want a band-aid. there is more pressure coming. >> i feel you could be here for some hours. but for sue and myself, that more or less brings us to the end. sue? >> indeed it does. indeed it does, simon. >>> don't miss our cnbc special report because they are probably going take it down to the last second in washington. america's economy held hostage hosted by ryan sullivan, kelly evans, tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. that will does do it for "power lunch." thanks for joining us. have a good new year. "street signs" begins right now. >> the president speaking moments ago, saying that we are indeed close to a fiscal cliff deal. the latest word is that they are negotiating over the exact amount where taxes will rise, 450, maybe 550, maybe in the middle at 500 but the president did throw a barb out there saying if the republicans think we are done with tax revenue and spending cut discussion, they have another thing coming. welcome to final "street signs" of 2012. and if things don't go well, maybe the final "street signs" ever. just kidding. just ten hours left in this year in washington and ten years until we fall off the fiscal cliff. can we get it done? >> working the phones day and night, let's goat john harwood in washington. lots and lots of headlines, fill us in. >> the latest mandy is that negotiations agreed on the middle class portion of the tax cuts. these are talks between biden and mcconnell. what they agreed to is 39%, 39.6, rather, of individuals over $400,000 in income. married couples above $450,000. estate tax to 40% for estates over $5 million p.m. and rise in dividend rates. can they resolve the disagreement offer spending cuts? democrats are resisting. they want a longer perhaps one-year delay and president obama was trying to rally those disappointed democrats with remarks that he just made by citing gains that he had won in terms of energy and education tax breaks he supported in the past and vowing to seek more revenue later on when we get to the discussion of entitlement cuts or what republicans believe is safer ground. saw some tweets saying he is trying to gum up the works. but there is the way the to and fro negotiation of president obama making sure his own troops are in line if he makes a deal. >> absolutely. talking to and fro, when president obama was speaking and saying a fiscal cliff deal was in sight, we saw the dow spike back above the 13,000 market pch pairing those gains a little bit as we speak. still below the 13k mark right now. we will watch this as we continue to get headlines. let's talk to aimian who is also falling a minute by minute changes. what is the latest in your camp? >> the deal john just outlined would be a relief here on capitol hill. i talked to congressman last night who were worried that negotiations would break down and the democratic senate would send over a hot potato bill. they thought they would be forced to be under a position of rejecting the bill, voting against it or having tspeaker just sit on it and kill it completely. they did not want to be the last people in this debate to vote this thing down. now it looks like what will happen is they will get a bill at some point, perhaps later today or some evening that might be something a good solid group of republicans can co-eless around. it has been the big question throughout this. can the democrats and senate pass something the republicans will agree to. >> what is our timetable? what can we expect for the next ten hours or so? >> we don't know at this point. there are a couple of possibilities. one is they get it in the language, vote on it then see votes this afternoon on the senate side -- house side, rather. but it is getting late in the day. another possibility is they punt this thing and go into tomorrow. do this while markets are closed tomorrow on new year's day. that is something i've heard scud el butt around. but stokes in control of the schedule here, simply don't flow when they get this deal and it makes it very difficult for tlem to know when to bring it to the floor. they don't know when it is or when it is coming. >> sounds like a late night and early morning. he was literally working the phones. >>> this is an important part of the story here. remember this, if you haven't been following the fiscal cliff, take note. even if a deal gets done, taxes go up for many high income and likely big spending families. there is an economic impact either way. it is just perhaps the veseveri under question. >> when we talk about is the marginal propensity to consume. what does that mean? for every dollar that you either have or don't have, how much of that will you spend or not spend? the thinking is as we raise taxes on wealthier people, that margin propensity goes down. in other words, they don't spend every dollar they have, they save a bit of it, because they have more of it. the economic point of view is to get rid the tax hikes on middle class. it goes down the the higher up you go it goes down further. you are right to say that in general, economists in 2013, brian, are looking for fiscal contraction. the federal government will be a drag on growth. no matter what happens, taxes go up on some folks then spending cuts in the budget control act and so far as you notice, brian, they haven't said anything about the $130 billion in automatic spending cuts out there if they do a one for one trade. >> quantify it for us. in layman's terms here. how much of a drag on growth, steve? >> right now, if we did the full fiscal cliff, the full fiscal cliff monty, perhaps is the best way it put it, we get rid of more growth in the economy than in all of 2011. it would be a negative number, essentially, mandy. like 4.2% of gdp. we grew up 4% of 2011. a negative number. take away from that all things being equal. depending on what the private sector did. a negative for the economy. every dollar they don't do on the fiscal cliff, that's a dollar that does not come out of the economy. but i think it is probably reason to consider. talking about what brian was talking about at the top of the show here. 1%, maybe 1.5% drag on growth of anything decided from the fiscal cliff anyway. >> and it depends on what you buy. i hear what you're saying with, steve and it is important to dive in. when you get a dollar you probably spend more than the dollar, right? they have shown that. that is the greatest multiplier. let's be clear on what that is on. necessities, food, clothing, which is needed. and on taxes, and there is not a lot of sympathy, but if you are a boat maker, high-end home builder, anything to do with that side of the economy, whether or not there is sympathy or not, you will get pinched. boat makers, while maybe not getting sympathy, do employ people. >> i don't disagree. there is effect at upper end. there is some reduction in spending coming from higher taxes. the question is whether what is the overall effect and the question is what is the goal here, brian? why are we going through this exercise to begin with. >> force equality of income. if you can't raise incomes, then bring the top down to where the gap is narrow. >> redistribute that income to order to give people a leg up and eventually become even wealthy on their own or not become dependent on the state. that the goal that would you hope they would aim for here. but i want to point out that nobody is that concerned from an economics point of view with spending this year. all of the spending issues are in outlying years. there is no sense that deficit will hammer us right now. >> i have blajerred on too much. my fault. thank you very much sfls let's hit on as many as we can. jimmy p. joining us. and former governor ed rendell. i think steve brought up an important point, governor, which is this, what do you believe is the ultimate goal. adding 50 $60 bucks to benefits will help them live a more comfortable life. will it help the growth goals of the united states? >> i think the greater growth goals can only be accomplished -- look, there isn't going to do anything to get our debt under control. we we have to go back to the drawing board to deal with entitlement reform, military spending cuts and revenue. it is reported this produces 600 billion in revenue, that's not nearly enough. we have to go back tlt drawing board an and make tough decisions. only taking care of the debt will causey think the chain reaction that will cause markes to the explode. economy to grow bp that's more important than any of the little niches you are talking about. >> when will that time kuk? when will we have to go back to the dprrawing board, sir? >> i think in the next couple of months. you have the resolution and the debt ceiling. those things are crucial. and someone has to get serious about real reform. real change. real spending cuts and real revenue increases. we talk about, we are going to reform taxes and change some deductions and maybe change loop holes but no one had the cuts to put one out on the table. >> sounds like with you are not thrilled with what we have so far. jimmy p., what do you think is being achieved here? >> one thing, there is -- we have forgotten about it that we are, as least as the president outlined it and john harwood outlined it, there are increasing investment taxes next year by 60%. 15 to 24 healthcare tax. that is a huge increase. one other thing from the president's speech, the fiscal cliff will end. now the super cliff in february and march. looks like a huge battle of the sequester. republicans want different spending cuts and debt ceiling on top of it. get ready for the super cliff? >> so you are saying today is just a band-aid. >> listen, the battle will be more fervent in the spring. it doesn't sound like they will delay it. that's an even bigger battle, i think. >> i think governor greg man u, some say he is partisan on the right, he had an op ad over the weekend. if we want to be a nation that gives people unlimited healthcare and social security no matter what you pay in, taxes have to go up on everybody. do you agree? >> answerly. tax absolutely. we can give reasonable benefits, controlled, smart spending with, do all those things and keep tax cuts at a reasonable rate. >> with the average single income household. let's say the man works, wife doesn't, or vice versa. it is $6 used versus every $1 paid in. 6-1. can clearly unsustainable. >> we need far more fundamental reform. what the governor expects to avoid massive tax increases. >> who's got the guts to do that? feels as if kufrnt congrecurren do not, jimmy. >> the president trashed it in the campaign. i think that's the medicare reform we need. does that mean revenue is at 18% of gdp for infinite? i don't know about that. >> i would like to ask you, governor, what did you think of what obama was saying? do you feel he moved the ball forward or backwards? >> i think the deal will go down regardless because the embarrassment would be so great for not going it. >> who in particular do you think is causing that embarrassment? >> i think washington, d.c. everyone. rs everyone. i think what joe mentioned yesterday is exactly right. people are looking at washington and seeing a dysfunctional city, dysfunctional government and we've got to prove them different and we've got, i think, we've got two to three months to really do something significant. you know, the campaign to fix the debt, which is bipartisan, greg and bloomberg and i are co-claire, we've been calling for them to do something big. they had seven weeks to do something big, and they didn't. they kicked the can down the road. >> they add decade to do something big. jimmy, listen, we are heading into the nur yeanew year, it is time for forgiveness. i will defend congress for a second. i was thinking about this last night, right? they are in an impossible tossing. if they say, i'm sorry, you won't get everything promised. period. next election they are go gone because someone will step up and say, sure, i will give you everything. i don't know how i'm going to pay for it. so i feel a little bad for congress. happy new year. >> i don't believe that's right. >> i do not believe that's true. i believe they need a logical plan that said, listen, our number one choice is not to raise taxes. first we will get spending down. then pro growth tax reform to create more revenue. then if we have to, last choice is to raise the tax burden. >> governor, on the point jie bryan just made? >> i think the american people are smarter than what you just said, brian. >> i hope. >> if we act together, republicans an democrats together, i think they'll be a surprisingly small price it pay at the battle box. >> i hope you're right. governor rendell, jimmy p., always good to have you on our show. >> thanks you. >> in case you are haven't noticed, we are following the fiscal cliff down to the wire. no early partying for us. i will be hosting a party with kelly evans. a big night with a lot of developments. please tune in. >> next, fiscal cliff will have a major effect on america's manufacturers. we will talk to two ceos, nation's backbone is bracing for this impact. >> later on, there were big stock winners this year. but should you buy those studs or take a flyer and go with the duds? we will debate it coming up. i wasn't pointing alt at you. 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[ all ] i'm with scottrade. >>> now we do go over the cliff and let's hope we get a deal for the last minute that we will stop that from happening. the impact will be felt in just about every aspect of the u.s. economy, especially u.s. manufacturing. let's bring it n president of power systems. also david watham. they make a wide range of manufacturing product from packaging to containers. both of you, great to have you with us today. david, to you first of all. i don't know if you've been listening to the tv or radio or hearing about the headlines or the contours of the deal arising right now. what does it mean for your business? >> first off, i'm optimistic because it is a step in the right direction. all it is, is a step. big stuff to work on. >> that said and i talk a lot to counter parts, we are all operating in this mode we are in flat economies and a few bright spots around and you jump on those and anything with the solution, is pretty short term and there is a lot bigger stuff to do before we can grow the u.s. i'm a big optimist on the u.s. but we have work to do. >> david, in the lead up to this fiscal cliff deadline, a lot of ceos we have spoken to have said, just the uncertainty that the tax rates will be -- they don't know what certain other thing will be. so they put their hiring plans on hold. is that case for you? if we do get a deal, will it unleash capital spending and hiring? >> i am a little different than some of those. i've got friends that would say exactly that. i happen it think in times of stress, or when you pick a few bright spots and winners and double up on them. you can k see it in the growth rates and see it in the capital spending rates and hiring, that said, you have to be precise and pull the plug fast and we are all in that mode. but i do think there are bright spots. you have to dig them out and jump on them. >> as opposed to the story of what will happen in taxes go up, how about this? did your business boom when tax rates went down? >> were you talking to me, sir? >> larry, yes. >> they sure did. that's a key component for business. we've add real strong three or four years with 30 to 40% growth and it is exciting to sit back and strategically plan how to overcome the obstacles in the -- in business. what's frustrating is to see what is going on in washington because if they just get out of the way, we can do some things and create jobs. >> what would they do, larry? if you were running congress for a day, as a successful guy wh, t would be job one? >> well i would bring in people smarter than me, like warren buffe buffett. i would put them in a room and say, what would you do? you're the best there is, give us advice, what do you think we ought to do? then make sure politicians listen to them. >> same thing to you, david. if there is one thing that you could have done in congress, that is pro your business, what would it be? >> rule one for me is moratorium on blaming at each other and gripe at each other even get serious about moving forward. same as you just heard. the real issue is growing the total pie. and we can do that. it is tax rate driven. i agree. some understanding of what is coming at us. we are all raring to go and know what what to do. we are getting squeezed some to say, maybe they are growing faster, let's jump on that. we opened two plants in brazil and two in the u.s. that ratio cleared when we see more in the u.s. >> larry, bottom line, will 2013 be a better year economically than 2012? >> i want it to be. i just don't know what they are going to do in washington. again, if they will get out of the way and let small business to what they do best, i think we can have a heck of a year. >> okay, larry, david, thank you for giving us the view from the ground, if you like. thanks for joining us on cnbc. >>> why some doctors are ready to pull the plug if we go over the cliff. on gasoline. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. [ male announcer ] and it's not just these owners giving the volt high praise. volt received the j.d. power and associates appeal award two years in a row. ♪ >>> like the rest of us, physician face a tax hike in the new year if no deal is reached tonight. at the same time, doctores who treat the 47 million medicare patients face a big pay cut with reimbursement rates set it fall off on new year's day. you are looking at the doc's fix cliff, that's a hard one to say. >> yeah, the doc's fix cliff. now just 9 1/2 hours away from what they call crippling medicare cuts. the sequester cuts mean 2% reduction for medicare. on top of that, doctors face 27% rate cut because of medicare formula all sides say is broken. sustainable growth rate formula triggers doctor reimbursement cuts. for nine years it has done that and congress passed doc fix funding to keep rates from being can cut. this year the doc fix is hostage to the fiscal deadlock. without a fix, one physician group calculates that most family practices will see a 27 $27,000 decrease in terms of what they make this year. and the typical three-doctor practice will lose about $80,000. centers for medicare and medicaid notify doctors of a window of about two weeks of that area in orange. reimbursement cuts start at midnight. none the less it takes about two weeks before they pay the very first claims. so before that, they won't cut the payments. meantime, bit 1 17by the 11th, e doctors that will give them what terms to provide and pay. that keeps doctors very much in the dark because even if they delay patient payments that means that doctors still have to try it maintain their costs. >> it looks like physician will get 27% cut in reimbursement for medicare. which for some means they are losing money on patients which suggests to me that at least some of them would stop taking medicare patients. >> and that's not something we need when you've got 10,000 baby boomers eligible for medicare everyday as they age in. putting the price tag around $300 billion, but guys that's a big chunk of change for this congress to come up with. read more on the doc fix on cnbc.com. >> thank you very much. >>> i challenge you, brian, to say that, doc fix cliff. >> doc fix cliff. >> yeah, whatever. >> it is a tough one. >>> coming up next, an update on the iffis cal cliff. find out why we are standing right now. >> and will 2013 be an even better year for the housing market? we will fire up the crystal ball and see where housing may take us. that's coming up with the doc fix can cliff. >> now you're just showing off. >> yes. >>> we with like to introduce to you street talk with our stock number one being cal-maine foods, big egg supplier, in the tank. >> laying an egg in the market today. >> egg on their face today. >> negative outweighed benefits from selling higher priced eggs. gross margin. you name it, a tough time for america's biggest egg company. >> yeah. what about magelin health services? >> they are tanking after one of their biggest customers decided not to renew their con trablgt. contract /* /- i know it doesn't sound like a lot, but they won't renew their contract with magellan on that news. >> there is a latest twist in this, a good one, bristol meyers squib and pfizer. >> the clot drug we have told you about, with approvals in japan and other countries for these drugs, they have a lot riding on eliquis. >> stellar for the past quarter of s&p and moving higher again today. >> yeah. over the past quarter, you're exactly right. you have seen criticism because the news is that the ceo has a million underpay. stock has done very well as mandy noted. a pay cut this year, so going back next year. look at the stock chart, still well off highs. some people say, why does he deserve any kind of a raise? i don't know. you can decide yourself. >> apple is moving 209 upside. this is yet another twist in the tale of this ongoing patent dispute. >> yeah. stock is up 4% today. samsung with claims against samsung. samsung agreed ton sell the galaxy siii mini in the united states. apple claims it isvilleable through amazon but will drop claims if samsung guarantees the phone won't be sold here. >> is there ever a more epic battle. >> apple versus samsung, a pimi series. >> i went to law school while i was working and people said, why are you going to law school when have you a career? i said, a, it won't be long, knowing me. >> 9 1/2 hours before the fiscal fiasco. john has breaking news at the white house. what do you have, john? >> i have news just confirmed bay white house official. there is two ways to raise money from people in income. one is by raising rates. we talk about the clinton rate of 39.6 being $400,000 for individuals and 450,000 for couples. but there is going to be a letter right rait under it tentative deal, still emerging, for the phase out of deductions and credits. that phase-out would begin at incomes of $250,000 for individuals and $300,000 for couples. that means that the president can say that he had campaigned on raising taxes over incomes of 250,000 in this instance for this purpose, of winding down deductions and credits, he can say that. now again, this doesn't get into the revenue goals that he sought initially in the deal but a way for him it signal to democrats that in fact i'm trying to get revenue down at lower income thresholds and he said a few minutes ago he would seek more revenue when the entitlement discussion resumes in earnest in federal deductions, guys. >> do we have an idea of what deductions may be phased out. mortgage interest? charitable? are these itemized? >> i think a whole range of deductions. i don't have a detailed list. it is very technical in how the phase-outs are referred to by acronymes with the name of a lawmaker who authored the provision. there are ways in which they came about during the 1990s when they were closing the budget gap and raising more revenue ways without touching the rate, just ensure that people with high income lekss don't have the same deductions that people with low income levels do. this doesn't even get to the president's idea of reducing the rate at which you can claim dedungss to 28%. it is about the phase-out. >> if part of that is housing mortgage interest then watch the realtors squirm as well. thank you for watching that news for us. >> let's bring in jennifer, blogger pr the washington post and hey jennifer before we get into congress and mer can's hatred of congress, what do you make of john harwood's news? do you think people will take fewer and fewer dedungss at the high end? >> they certainly aren't practicing the art of tax reform are they, with these may. ed rates. i think this is damage con froel for the president. i think this will not please a lot of republicans and it shouldn't please a lot of blue state democrats. chuck schumer and kirstin gill brandt will have a lot of deductions for the states. which is something they might not want. >> you have been very, very critical of congress, right? let me bring up some words you used. and you're sticking with that or are you at least a little bit encouraged by compromises that are coming to the table today? >> i think there is a the dysfunction with the white house. you know the president had to artificially insert himself because he is not in the mix. firsthanding the ball off to harry reid. when harry reid couldn't get anywhere. he handed it off to joe biden. i think this is not a congress that distinguished itself. in particular, the united states senate which hasn't passed a budge net how many years now? so i think the house at least has done its job. it has passed an alternative for example for the sequester cuts. it did come up with a plan to avert the tax increases across the brd? the senate has really done nothing. and it is amazing to me that people would ask for their jobs back. when they haven't been able to do their jobs in any meaningful sense in the last few years. >> jennifer, listen. i'm in a charitable mood. i've been defending congress. these people were elect ped sop clearly somebody believes they need to elect these rigid dog mattic individuals that won't budge. >> i don't mind so much that they are dogmatic. i would like for them to put forth the foe seerable course. what does harry reid believe? what does chuck schumer believe? let them put something on the table, go through a congress and works things out. they have been spared even voting on splg. >> no one wants to get up in front of the public and say, i'm taking this. >> that's too wad. they are elected to do a job. and during election the president announced wanting to do certain things. part of being an elected official is being forced to say what you are for and what with you are against. if they can't do that, then go back it wherever they came from and find another line ever work. >> wonder if it will get worse before it gets better. thank you for joining us today. the washington post's jennifer rubin. >>> this is wall street's fear gate. i believe it has seen the steepest drop today since june. down 14%. back below the 20 mark. you can see the dow is slightly about 13,000 again. i think the nasdaq is back -- there you go, back at 3,000 exactly. it feels as if the mark set feeling they are putting faith in a deal getting done before the deadline cracks over our heads. >> what is the "street signs" motto? >> hopium. >> no. >> oh, everything's fine. >> right. and the vix is saying. >> everything's fine. >>. we have other mottos. >> most not fit for a family show. >> what will 2013 bring for housing and poor people of pairs? we will explain what that is when "street signs" returns. i've always had to keep my eye on her... but, i didn't always watch out for myself. with so much noise about health care... i tuned it all out. with unitedhealthcare, i get information that matters... my individual health profile. not random statistics. they even reward me for addressing my health risks. so i'm doing fine... but she's still going to give me a heart attack. we're more than 78,000 people looking out for more than 70 million americans. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods' first day of work. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. >>> coming up on closing bell at the top of the hour, the very last trading hour of 2012. anything is possible today. we are watching the market moves and helping you get set for a prosperous 2013. and of course the latest from capitol hill. no deal yet, but we are close, apparently, to getting something as we approach the midnight deadline. up to the second details from california coming up here. >>> then a while year for technology. if our experts are right, 2013 will be even more surprising. if you're an investor you cannot afford to miss their predictions coming up. all that and more when mandy and i see you at the top of the hour. dare i say this could be the most important trading hour of the year, mandy? >> i think you can dare to. thank you, bill. see you in a few minutes. the city's oldest bakery not staying open for one day more. while the 202-year-old shop is suffering from failing real estate prices. the landlord doubled the rent and says basically he is shutting down because he cannot stay profitable. kind of sad. all those people who have enjoyed his baguette for 43 years. >> maybe he can go to belgium. >> what can we expect for housing in 2013? let us bring in president of team investments. all right, tanya, what are you seeing how the there? give us your forecast. >> i would like to say we are going to see a lot of short sales but if the fiscal cliff is not averted, we will see mortgage rates stay low. they can't afford to raise rates because, here is a great example. in 1987, $170,000 house, the payment is more than $270,000 house with 5% down today. so they can't afford to raise the mortgages if we go over the cliff. the other thing is people won't be able to short sale because that will be taxable income. so it would be better for them to forclose. that really hurts the banks. it hurts everyone. hurts the homeowner. but people have to do that to avoid that tax consequence. so those are really big things that the fiscal cliff will hurt or help depending on what they do. >> what if we don't go over the fiscal cliff? what if we get the last minute deal, as we stand right now, what happens to housing then? >> absolutely. so if we do get that deal and short sales are able to continue the way that they have, the banks are even seeing a profitable situation with short saling. we are going to see a lot of short sales in 2013. we are going to see rates stay low for the first half of 2013. but they are going to have to let people be able to get that type of rate by raising the rate and reducing what it takes to get that type of loan in the second half of 2013. and in all honesty, sorry, housing is really a bright spot in the economy right now. so i think that they will dot right thing and let this continue to see gradual gains like they have. >> tanya, dare i say happy new year? thank you very much. >> happy new year. >> take care. >> all right, stocks for the new year. coming up, do you buy the wirwif 2012 or hope the losers rebound? we will debate it. >> and fiscal cliff be damned and have formed lots of crowds there as can you see on the screen, for the big ball drop. p it is about 36 degrees out there. i've said it many, many times, nothing at all would entice me to stand there for the ball drop. >> you wouldn't be able to see. >> and there are no bathrooms. it is cold and there are no bathrooms. i want to be inside. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade. but don't just listen to me. listen to these happy progressive customers. i plugged in snapshot, and 30 days later, i was saving big on car insurance. with snapshot, i knew what i could save before i switched to progressive. the better i drive, the more i save. i wish our company had something this cool. you're not filming this, are you? aw! camera shy. snapshot from progressive. >>> mitch mcconnell speaking on the senate floor. let's listen in. >> president said quote for now our most immediate priority is to stop taxes priority is to stop taxes going up for middle class families starting tomorrow, end quote. i agree. he suggested that action on the sequester is something we continue to work on in the coming months. so i agree. let's pass the tax relief portion now. let's take what's been agreed to and get moving. let me say this was not easy to get to. i mean, the vice president and i last spoke about -- yesterday about 12:45 this morning and then again at 6:30 this morning then multiple times during the day this morning. this has been clearly a good faith negotiation. we all want to protect taxpayers. and we can get it done now. right now. so let me be clear. we'll continue to work on finding smarter ways to cut spending, but let's not let that hold up protecting americans from the tax hike that will take place in about ten hours. ten hours from now. we can do this. we must do this. i want my colleagues to know that we'll keep everybody updated as we continue to try to wrap this up. i yield the floor. >> senator mitch mcconnell speaking on the senate floor. what he said was a big deal. there's your markets the dow jones industrial average continuing to gain. it is up 103 points right now. mcconnell saying quote, they are very, very close to a deal and perhaps more important for the market that they have reached an agreement on all of the tax issues. once again, the senate minority leader saying there is an agreement in the senate on all tax issues. that has been a sticking point, and it means that they have come to an agreement on a number whether it's $450,000 a year, $500,000 whatever it is defined as rich and who will pay higher taxes. they are close. and the dow up 100 points on that and has been gaining the last couple minutes or so. all right. let's talk more about this. brent willsy. all right, jim, got about what? nine hours and change until the end of the year. you heard mcconnell. do you believe we're getting a deal sfl. >> i do believe we're getting a deal. i've believed that the whole time. i'm surprised it coming this early. we're not in the eleventh hour yet. it seems they'd want to occupy center stage for the rest of the day. i always thought we were getting a deal or a deal coming within the next couple days with hints today that that's what's going to happen. i think the market believes what i believe. in a couple weeks this will be history. >> brent, do you agree with that? >> it's funny. jim and i do agree on this and i've been saying this for the past month. negotiations 101, you're not going to make a deal until the last minute. that's the best negotiations you can do. i've been saying this on my radio show and public and so forth. now we're starting to hear more positive news. i think that's why the markets haven't gone down much because they agree as well. >> okay, brent. then let's assume -- and i'm going to go with the framework of what we heard as the deal. again, i'm not saying this is the deal. let's say the latest framework is what we get. taxes go up above 450, maybe we see an increase in capital gains taxes and investment income to 20% or 25%. not ordinary income rates. what damage, if any, would that do to the markets and the economy? or would we be fine? >> i think we'll be fine and do very well, because -- and you guys have been doing a great job covering with ceos and so forth saying we just want to deal. now to get this deal, now businesses can decide what they want to do. consumers will start consuming again. i think 2013, i think it's going to be a very good year. we'll have good gains because now we have things we can deal with it, some things we'll like, some things we won't. but we know where we stand. >> jim, the money's coming from somewhere. now a family paying another $2,000 a month in taxes for a rich family. they can swing it but it's going to come from somewhere. do you agree the economy will be okay? >> we have to remember that raising the taxes and capital gains and dividends is a bad idea. we don't want to raise taxes on investment. we want to cut it -- >> but it's coming. let's assume it happens. >> no, that's fine. that being said, this is very minor. this could have been much, much worse what we thought could have happened a month ago, a month and a half ago. i think we're going to take this in stride. this is not that much of a negative. >> that's interesting. then the democrats should be screaming, jim. because if the money -- the money before didn't make a dent in the deficit, this deal while good for america may not -- is going to by default make less of an impact. >> all they really wanted to do was make sure they stuck to their campaign promise they were going to raise tax on the upper class. and that's fine. there's no meaningful reduction to the deficit until we deal with medicare and defense. >> we've got to go. happy new year, gentlemen. >> you too. >> let's bring in eamon now. mitch mcconnell surprising at least us coming out saying that. looks like they're close to a deal. good news? >> absolutely good news. definitely an indication that mitch mcconnell thinks as he said they are very, very close. now, interesting about mcconnell's comments. he's saying he thinks they are very close or graed on the tax piece of this deal. and maybe they should take that and come back for the spending piece later. that's going to be an interesting decoupling of what we thought was going to be a one-stop shop kind of a deal here where we go both on spending and taxes in the same negotiations. now we're going to see maybe -- >> eamon, i got to jump in on you. we got john harwood as well. you broke the news about the phase out. it sounds like mcconnell saying the tax part is settled. sounds like the last fight is going to be the news that you broke. >> yes. well, i think what mitch mcconnell is trying to do is force the democrats' hand on the sequester. if you don't get an agreement on the sequester, then the automatic spending cuts happen. republicans simply don't want to give democrats a pass on that. democrats are standing firm 37. >> john and eamon, thank you very much. i know we're going to hear more from washington, d.c. we've got "closing bell" next. we'll be right back. i don't spend money on gasoline. i am probably going to the gas station about once a month. last time i was at a gas station was about...i would say... two months ago. i very rarely put gas in my chevy volt. i go to the gas station such a small amount that i forget how to put gas in my car. 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CNBC
Dec 30, 2012 7:30pm EST
not been great so far. it will matter quite a bit whether or not they are able to get a fiscal cliff deal done in the near future. somebody clears the decks to do other things, things that might not be quite as either controversial or may not matter as much to the economy. so if you have a long fight over immigration, that's not a great thing but it's better than having a fight that leads to a debt ceiling default. the question is whether or not they are able to move past this in a way that allows for making agreements going forward or whether or not we end up in the essentially endless series of smaller fiscal cliffs this year. things get pushed forward for two weeks, two months, three months at a time and another debt ceiling in early 2013. if that's the case, there's going to be a lot more uncertainty and the structure will be there a lot more, very angry, a lot more tense, a lot more bitter, 11th hour negotiations going forward. >> mike, what sectors or areas are you watching in 2013? >> i think what's interesting is that the housing revival has obviously been embraced by wall street. a lo
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 7:00pm EST
the developing situation in washington. there's no deal, no new offer on the fiscal cliff crisis. president obama has just told the two senate leaders they should make the deal. the results immediately felt in the financial markets. look where the dow closed down 158 points when it became very clear nothing was happening and now take a look at where the numbers are in the after markets. we would open now down 315 points on the dow if we started trading now. down 315 points. we have much more on this throughout the rest of the program, but the market's very unhappy. we do have some good news to report tonight. looks like at least one cliff has been averted for the time being. the so-called container cliff. the union that represents dock workers and u.s. maritime lines came to an agreement today to extend their current contract for 30 days. this is a big relief now for the retail industry and consumers who were staring at real destruction again for the supply chain. here now is jonathan gold and he's vice president of supply chain and customs policy for the national retail federation. jonathan, good to see you. >> michelle, thanks for having me tonight. >> how dram
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 12:00pm EST
? i mean, you're waiting to see what happens with this fiscal cliff? >> i am. i tell you, i think that the christmas gift people are getting right now is to sell above 13,000. we were surprised we're not getting a deal. i'm surprised the market's as firm as it is and it is very easy to overthink this. well, must be firm. the bulls are strong. hey, we go higher. i think that's not the read at all. i think the initial reaction we got when they sent the house of representatives home on thursday night is what we're going to see when they don't get a deal done to the end of the year. i think there is no way. >> you think the market has it wrong here by being this high. >> i do. i think ultimately we're being tropical depression up by the 90 billion a month in fed liquidity but i think that comes home to roost probably as we get closer to the end of the year. the only way we have a shot to get a deal at the end of the year or maybe even early in january is if we have market pressure. right now the market is supplying no pressure to these politicians. so there is no reason for them to do a deal. >> in other words what you're saying is there is an enormous amount of room for real disappointment in this market wh
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 9:00am EST
coming in. futures today, a lot to deal with as you probably know. the fiscal cliff headline watch continues. you just heard john kanas say the market not too concerned. futures up 21 points. decent data out of europe, we will talk about in a minute what a day for the asian markets again. also coming up. our road map begins at andrews air force base where the president arrives in a couple of hours, cutting his hawaiian vacation short to address the fiscal cliff s there really any hope in the last attempt? does the market fade if there's no news tomorrow night? >> the nikkei continues its 21-month run. how much is the boj willing to put up with? >> looking a at potential strike in the nation's port on the east and southern coast, the first since '77 that could cost retailers and importers billions. businesses now asking its white house to get involved. >>> you can now get the nokia lumia for free, depending on the service provider contract you sign s that standard practice or a sign the company's flagship phone suspect selling well? >>> we will start off with news about the fiscal c
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 6:00am EST
♪ the final countdown >> good morning, everyone. happy new year. not only here, but around the world. the fireworks are starting to kick off all over the place. right now, we can say an official happy new year to the citizens of new zealand. in auckland, this is where they're celebrating new year's. the light just went down. all you hobbits out there, we wish you a very happy new year. it's coming our way a little later. there go the fireworks. yeah, it is officially new year's eve. >> 18 hours ahead of us. >> happy 2013 to those folks just a few hours away from us. good morning, everybody. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin. joe kernen is joining us from washington, d.c. this morning along with john harwood. joe, i know you have a huge lineup there. and i know you were up a little late last night, too, right? >> yes, becky, very late. you and andrew, i hope you guys are ready for the heavy lifting. can i ask you a question? are they over the cliff in new zealand, do you know? >> yeah, i guess that's it. >> the sequester would have gone into effect. >> no, that's probably only affecting us here, but that shows you how close it is. we are -- i guess something could happen at 11:00. we'll see, beck. andrew, good to see you, as well. >> good to see you. >> we've switched. i've got the jacket on, you've got the jacket off. how does that capital building look? >> it looks great behind you. you look very statesman like, absolutely. you have your rise above pin on for this final day. >> he looks like a senator. >> you do have a senatorial look. >> i'm going to retire to the rise above when we start talking about the debt ceiling. we may need a whole new branding campaign. anyway, john harwood is here. it's coming down to lawmakers to try to rise above. we're going do discuss many different angles. coming up in the next few minutes, shelly capito and greg meeks of new york. in the next hour, tom cole, tom price and chris van hollen. then at 8:00 a.m. eastern, senator ron johnson and bob corker. president obama issued a warning on "meet the press." >> on midnight, december 31st, if congress doesn't act, then everybody's taxes go up. and for the average family, that could mean a loss of $2,000 in income. for the entire economy, that means consumers have a lot less money to make purchases, which means businesses are going to have a lot less customers, which means that they're less likely to hire and the whole economy could slow down at a time when the economy is starting to pick up. >> but after it was all said and done, leaders on the senate floor couldn't get anything done, at least not yet. >> there's no single issue that remains an impossible sticking point. the sticking point appears to be a willingness and interest or frankly the courage to close the deal. i want everyone to know, i'm willing to get this done, but i need a dance partner. >> this morning, we've been trying to come up with some counteroffice to my friend's proposal. we haven't been able to do that. i've had a number of conversations with the president and at this stage, we're not able to make the counteroffer. >> that's joe biden, i believe. the house will meet at 9:00 a.m. for legislative business. i heard one rally as i was leaving and that was bring in rg3. i'm ready to bring in one other rookie. if you need an adoptive team, i suggest the redskins. those two rookies, unbelievable. >> i didn't stay up to watch the whole game. >> i did, in fact. exiting the stadium, wow, there -- i think these fans started tailgating at, like, 8:00 in the morning and i think they were tailgating, as they say, all day long. >> joe, you're bringing tears to my eyes. >> talking about rg3. >> oh, yeah. >> it was great. it was great. >> and i guess that's what it is. i hear people talking about john wheaton and -- >> comfortable in that fancy box you were in? >> i was very comfortable in that fancy box i was in. i was comfortable. >> do you want me to show you how comfortable i was? >> what have you got? right here, baby. redskins pajama pants. i was watching the game in these. >> john, thank you for not wearing those in today. >> i thought about wearing them on the bottom of the suit. if i was a better fan, i would do that. >> oh, my god, there's a pouch in back. though, it's not. i'm sorry. your jammies. anyway, you guys can handle a lot of the heavy lifting today, please, after about a -- >> you look good, joe. you don't look worse for the wear. how late did it go? >> i think we were -- like after 12:00. 12:30. >> you were tweeting me after 12:00. >> why was he up? oh, i know why you were at. >> i assume you continued the tailgating after that, then. >> no. but i definitely got behind some of the other -- i mean, i was not quite up to snuff with some of the other fans as we were exiting. >> those guys had been at it a little longer than you have? >> jae. you definitely don't want to say, hey, watch it, buddy. >> go redskins, right, and get out of the way? >> right. >> it's more dangerous to go to a game in philly. >> is it, really? >> yeah. they throw batteries and -- >> becky, i'm sorry about rutgers again. we didn't get to talk about that. three straight disappointments. there's always next year. are you ready for the big -- >> ready for notre dame. we have notre dame coming up, too. something else to look forward to. do you guys see any lawmakers? are you for notre dame over the tide? >> yeah. sorry, beck. >> did you guys see any lawmaker else at the game last night? any senators or congressmen? sflo no current ones. i was looking around for that. would it really matter? >> no, it's just bad optics. if you're sitting there sitting on your hands -- you should sit on your hands in your office, right? all right. we're going to continue talking about all this. as we said, we are about to go over the fiscal cliff. if a deal is not reached to avoid the fiscal cli by january 2nd, automatic domestic and military spending cuts will kick in and the pentagon will be forced to cut $9 million in spending. >> if lawmakers can't avoid the fiscal cliff, they may be able to avoid a different cliff, the dairy cliff. house and senate members appear likely to extend farm legislation for a year, a deal that would keep milk prices skyrocketing in january. we were worried about $6 gallon of milk. it could keep a decades old subsidy from coming back to life. the usda would be forced to buy milk at prices well above what farmers were getting now if the subsidy was revived. it could double the price of moib to $6.12 a gallon. >> markets have been reacting to each move on capitol hill, but obviously, things at this point are looking like the dow would open down by about 7.5 points. the dow is off 67 points and the nasdaq is down 14.75 points. all the surprised given the late hour that -- >> even if something doesn't happen today, it happens in two or three days. >> right. so if you were looking for a market reaction because a lot of the market iraqis we've heard has said, if highways the case, near not getting it base odd what they're going to see this morning. based on where we were on friday after the market closed, the dow at that point was actually up year-to-date by about 5.9%. russell 2,000 did very well. it was up by better than 12%. we'll continue to watch this closely today. the one group that you might see interested in seeing a drop in some of these nebs today would be any fun manager who is interested in trying to make sure his fund beats the market performance. if you see a big dip today, it's good news for those people. >> i see a lot of people who say if there is a drop, they think they'll be jumping in to pick up the pieces. i'm not sure how far things could end up falling. >> and it's not just today, it's beyond that. take a look at oil. right now, oil down by about 25 cents. $90.55. and the ten-year notoriety now is yielding 1.711%. the dollar has been hanging in there, too. the dollar is up against the euro and the yen today. right now, the euro is at $131.93. and gold prices, go the gold has at this point gone up about $8.90, $1,664.80 an ounce. by the way, we have jim o'neill coming up in just a moment. we also have pimco's mow hammel el-erian. >>> steve sedgwick is standing by in london right now. how are things standing by there? >> it's a very quiet session as we saw last week on the u.s. and the european incidentsies. despite the fact that the vix in the united states and the v-stocks and the various volatility measures on this side of the atlantic remain elevated. despite that, we're not seeing a lot of oscillation on the back of, as you said, the fiscal cliff and concerns that we may fall off. does that mean that people are getting complacent? they think even though we might not get a deal in the next 24 hours, we will get a deal fairly imminently. in the meantime, though, this is what we've got in terms of the major european indices. that will open and the germans will come to that in a few minutes' time it has been up year-to-date around about 6% and that makes the ftse 100 a real lagger compared with some of its european peers. a laggard, as well, compared to the cac 40. we have no fiscal cliff deal as of yet and it is up 1%. that means the cac 40, the french equity market, the blue chips there are up over 15% year-to-date. and a lot of markets are being shut today, including the dax, it pales to insignificant compared to this. the dax when it closed on friday closed out a 29% increase year-to-date. a stunning performance from those german blue chips, especially when you consider the fact that we are in and out of recession in europe, we have a real malaise in front of a lot of sectors such as the carmakeres and that hasn't stopped the likes of vw, the likes of porsche, the likes of bmw having a very strong 2012. that's despite the fact that gm's opel said it will cut capacity by 20% in 2013. so we are seeing at the moment a real complacency regarding the fiscal cliff, but it's low volumes here as we enter the last hour or so of trading. back to you. >> we also have some news to bring you, broken last night. i expect john harwood talked about it on the special that we did last night. secretary of state hillary clinton is in a new york hospital this morning being treated from a blood clt clot resulting from a concussion you suffered earlier this month. she had been expected to return to work this week. >>> coming up, deal or no deal? we're going to look beyond the fiscal cliff and what it will mean for the markets. we have jim o'neill. he's going to join us to talk about whether he is bullish for the start of 2013 and how much the fiscal cliff is playing into his outlook. >>> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. take a look at futures for the day, the s&p is up a little over 7 points as we await to see what happens with the fiscal cliff. >> it is the last trading day of the year. how will the global marketses react to our domestic drama? calling in right now on the squawk news line is jim o'neill. it's great to be speaking with you this morning. i know we made it through the mayan apocalypse, but will we make it three through the fiscal cliff, as well? >> gosh, i don't know. i keep exchanging my mind about this every day in the past week. what is quite encouraging in a way is that other markets around the world, other important mark particular are trading so much of their own issues that the disappointment in the u.s. has not affected them at all. and while europe has given a bit back, it's barely noticeable. the markets, at least for now, are treeding this as pretty much a domestic affair or as is the case throughout the u.s., an assumption that something will happen later today that will allow it to -- but, you know, it comes against the background that there is a rotation of stock market leadership shifting away from the u.s. the u.s., the s&p led the world's market rally in 2012. but as we come to the end of the year, even without the fiscal cliff, there's evidence that the markets are taking over leadership. that would be my guess for the early part of 2013. almost irrespective of what goes on with the fiscal cliff. >> you know, jim, i was watching our futures this morning. right now, it looks like the dow would open down about 65 or 70 points. that's the good news, that the market would shrug this off that there will be a deal reached either later today or in the next few days. we've been expecting all along that it would take a big reaction in the markets to get any serious action in washington. if they're not seeing that, that may make it less likely for them to reach any sort of a grand deal. in fact, a grand deal at this point is probably off the table. what does that mean for the next three to six months for the u.s. markets? >> yeah. waiting to come on the show, i was looking at a chart of the various u.s. markets going back since before the election. and which have sort of gone through some phases. in a way, the markets have sort of factored in from the first immediate period following the election a big deal to resolve the situation in the u.s. is not going to happen. the lying fiscal challenges in the u.s. are not going to be resolved anytime soon. that would be a big surprise and, obviously, if it was one that appeared that didn't damage the economy, that would be enough. but i think most people are resigned to democracy and maybe this is a broader issue about western democracy. unless the markets do put governments under pressure, it's not easy to come up with such tough positions and i suspect that is going to be the case. it will be a recurring theme through the year, i suspect. >> and that's what i was going to suggest, this idea that we're going to come up with cliff after cliff after cliff, that maybe we're into a whole year of cliff diving, your expectation, let's say we get through the cliff with a baby deal. we've had still a number of economists come on this set and talk about how we could still be -- maybe not in a recession, but continue to see a slowdown. >> well, the other way i've been trying to think about the past 24 hours, you look at the private sector, there are two sources of great encouragement for the u.s. economy, it seems to me. one is the domestic housing story. and the second is, of course, the remarkable thing going on with energy based around shale, gas and oil. if these two sources of strength persist, you know, is the disappointment about the cliff enough to negate those two things? i suspect the answer is probably not. what it might mean is the difference between an economy that's going in the 2% vicinity of one that could, if a credible deal unleached from the korcht sector and beyond, one that could get back to what most people were -- if not normal, think of the old one in the 3% vicinity. >> jim, to the extent a client were to call you today and say, look, the market is dounl a little bit and who knows if it will be later today. do us this is a buying opportunity, then? >> well, you know, because i look at, obviously, things in such a global context, in any case, because the u.s. market has rallied so much from 2009, and as you guys, i hope, recall, i've been in the bull camp ever since, measures of valuation in particular so-called capital adjusted p/e ratio tight model which is a very conservative approach. the u.s. market isn't cheap any more. i don't think the u.s. market itself is going to be the sense of global action going forward and particularly what's going on policywise in japan and the whole trade. fascinating to see china hit a few weeks post leadership changes, first time this year the markets had more than 10% rally there. and the signs of europe's issues being if not resolved, certainly more minimized in terms of stress. so i think we're going tothz a lot clearer signs of powerful rallies coming from the rest of the world in 2013 which will make it somewhat different than 2012 and to some extent the previous two years, as well. >> joe is down in washington wauchg all of this first hand and i know he has a question for you, as well, jim. >> feeling all the different things coming in. >> that must be a real challenge for you being down in d.c. how did you get that straw? >> yeah, it is. i can take it for about 24 hours. i am feeling a lot of what's happening. and in the last 2 1/2 years or so, the poisoned atmosphere down here just to try and do anything is becoming really apparent. we put the sequester because it was so hard to try and do anything last time to force us, now we're not really inclined to do it again. my question, even if we do get a deal, a lot of the extra tax money we get is probably going to help off set the sequester. is there a day of reckoning, jim, and i read krugman today who, you know, now he's mad at howard schultz because he wants to, i don't know, do something with the deficit near term. can we go another five years without having some kind of reckoning in the bond market or somewhere else? >> you know, the european crisis has been quite instructive for my mind in this. but the reality is democracies don't really take tough decisions until they're put under enormous pressure from some external factor, in this case, the stock market. i find myself -- and i still think it today -- that oddly in the events of europe come out of the germans next door with something much more clear about a nurch path of the eurozone, and so people did start to believe the euro is a true global reserve currency to compete with the u.s., that might be the point where the u.s. starts to come under sear use pressure from the markets. of course wrb to some degree, the past -- well, longer, going back to august of last year, the u.s. had this strange benefit that this persisting european crisis is around and sort of global investors can't deal with two huge clem mas at the same time. but i think that would seem to me the period where things become more specifically risky for the u.s. and it may well be that until the bond market forces the pressure, where is the incentive for politicians to take tough decisions? >> jim, if that's the case, we've been watching the euro and it's been hard to understand why it's been so strong against the dollar. what do you think happens to the dollar if we get a year down the road or further and it looks like europe's problems aren't as big as they are today? then what happens? >> you know, i think the dollar outlook is looking -- is quite mixed. because there's various forces going on all over the world. it does seem to me that the draghi moments earlier this year, i thought within minutes of seeing it and i believe since that that was a major changing point, at least in terms of investors, instead of selling the bad news, as you know, the buy on the bad news dips in the euro area because the europeans and the german ves supported the ecb, despite the controversy. basically, they're going to do whatever is necessary to keep this thing in existence. and i think out the margin, it is already making investors around the world, including some very conservative and large ones i know, think that europe is now a better place to invest than the u.s. and i suspect that picture could slowly build more and more, which might seem odd to some of your viewers and listeners, but that would be my suspicion as we go into 2013. without that competition, i'm not sure where the u.s. really does come up with a powerful deal to solve its fiscal issues and if you reflect back on some of the problem areas of europe, even though they're all still mired in very weak growth, probably recession, there are positive signs going on in terms of labor reform in the likes of portugal, ireland, some even to some degree in spain and greece. and that wouldn't have happened without the pressure in the markets. >> obviously. jim, we want to thank you very much for calling in on this new year's eve and wish you a happy 2013 to you, as well. >> happy new year's to you guys. good luck to you. >> things. >>> coming up, we're going to calm to some politicians and congress people. we have shelly moore-capito and congressman greg meeks of new york will join us on the show to talk about the biggest sticking points. at the top of the hour, vice chairman and republican policy committee chairman tom price will be our special guest. "squawk box" coming right back. this is america. we don't let frequent heartburn come between us and what we love. so if you're one of them people who gets heartburn and then treats day after day... block the acid with prilosec otc and don't get heartburn in the first place! [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >>> good morning and welcome back to "squawk box." here on cnbc. you've got to lost that shot. i'm joe kernen. along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. back in we call it ec, englewood cliff, new jersey. i'm in washington with my friend, john harwood. i don't want to pretend there's no bengals, but we are basking. i'm sort of adopting the reskins, rg 3. lawmakers are back at it this morning trying to come to some agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff. senate majority leader harry reid says there's still significant distance between the two sides, but talks are continuing. we'll have more on the fiscal cliff saga in a moment. elsewhere, private equity consortium has struck a deal to buy investment banking firm duffs & phelps for $665 million. as part of the deal, duff & phelps is permitted to seek higher bidders until january 8th. there's a potential merger between amr pilots group. this would combine the two carriers, take amr out of bankruptcy and finally prove appeared rue ross sorkin correct in saying this was going to happen all along. were you involved in the negotiations? you were almost an investment banker here, urging both sides to do this, weren't you? >> without a fee, though. >> what are you talking about without a fee, though? do i work for free? come on. >> no. i've seen you work. >> thank you. >> what did you do, tweet about some vanguard -- i watch you work. i'm learning from you. all the angles, you're amazing. did they settle that thing? ye7. i'll settled up. let's talk about that during a break, though. >> all right. very good. okay, beck. >> guys, let's get a check on the markets this morning. if you are waking up realizing that the countdown is on, this is the last day before the fiscal cliff. and waulg seems nowhere near any sort of a deal, you might expect the markets would be tanking. not the case. they are looking lower. dow futures down by about 56 points. s&p futures down by about 6.5% or 7 points. if i were expecting a large drop, not the case just yet. you have a few more days before things get treacherous. and maybe that's what the markets are counting on, that and there could be some 11th hour deal that comes through today. in any case, you see the markets reacting calmly. right now in europe, you can see that france is higher. the cac is up by 1%. >> you get rid of that 75% tax and that's what happens. >> exactly. the court ruled that unconstitutional, that 75% tax the way it has been laid out. maybe that's why you do see that cac moving higher there. also, take a look at what happened overnight in asia. the shanghai composite was up by 1.6%. japan, the nikkei, up by 0.7%. a lot of these markets are probably closed for new year's. also, take a look at the oil board today. you'll see that oil prices are down by about 35 cents, $90.45 a barrel. and the ten-year note, the yield was around 1.7% the last time we checked. the dollar has also been reacting rather well. all things considered. right now, the dollar is continuing up against most of these currencies. dollar versus the euro, euro is at 1.3193. dollar/yen is at 86.12 and gold prices have been a little higher this morning on, as well. you can see they're up by $5.70. $1,661 an ounce. joe. >> thank you. lawmakers are continuing fiscal cliff discussions this morning. let's get to john harwood with an update. i have now am viewing the ball falling tonight. if there is not a deal -- and i don't know, you're going to tell us what the chances are, but that gives a whole new meaning as that's coming down. we hit the cliff when that -- >> that would be the bottom of the cliff. >> this is the first time ever when it's more than just ushering in a new year, but it would usher in serious fiscal head winds. >> it would, but there's still a chance this is going to work. >> have you talked to anyone this morning? >> i did. i got a message this morning on my blackberry about ten minutes ago from our senate republican source who said talks with biden were good last night. they went late. that is a promising sign that there is still a chance. they didn't break down, but there's still a chance that biden and mcconnell can come out with some sort of a deal, maybe the income threshold would be $400,000, maybe it would be $500,000, but it looks possible that they're going to have something to announce later. we don't know that for sure. i suspect if they do come out with a deal, congresswoman capito would like it better than congressman meeks. but we will see. >> john, the latest thing we've read, i'm not a smart man, but if it was 450 and one was at 550, wouldn't 500 -- wouldn't it seem like that -- isn't that in the middle? >> absolutely. >> if it's that boiig of a deal- >> the logic of 400 is only one rate gets affected. the 35% goes to 39.6%. >> so it's easier. >> it's cleaner. if they go to 500, democrats will come back in january and february and look for more revenue, perhaps through deduction capes and some of the things falling by the wayside. but i think the markets would take some comfort from the fact that at least they can do this much. it's not a lot, but it would be something. >> hey, john, the one thing i was thinking of even if they do reach some sort of a deal is in the senate, is it a given that it passes the house? >> not a given, but i think the chances are pretty good that if mitch mcconnell comes out, strikes a deal, blesses it, it gets 60 plus votes in the senate, which means some -- a slug of republicans are going along with democrats to vote for it, they might lose some democrats on it, i think then it would be very difficult for john boehner on the last day to keep that off the house floor. john boehner has followed what denny hastert used to impose as the majority of the majority rule. you don't bring something to the floor unless most of your members are for it. i think john boehner in this case would be willing to set that aside. he would have something else for his members to vote for, which would be more favorable to those die hard conservatives who oppose the deal, but i think he would put it on the floor and i think eld pass. >> joining us now on the set is republican congresswoman shelly moore-capito and democratic congressman greg meeks from new york. congresswoman, i think he could do that and bring it and still be fine on january 3rd. is that your view? he would be re-elected speaker. >> i think he's going to be re-elected speaker, regardless. but i think there is a will in our conference, in the republican conference, to act, to have something on the floor to react to. i would say that it could be that it comes back from the senate and we act on it, but we amend it and change it. i wouldn't say it would definitely be the end game. that would be a nice, neat package to tie et up like that, but i don't think that's necessarily going to happen. >> congresswoman congressman means, what does this mean about the rules? the house has to pass it and then -- >> i think we're at the point whereas the hope lies with the senate. i do believe that my colleague, good friend shelly and the rest of the republicans are not together. and so we need a deal. i think you are absolutely right, we need the senate to pass something. we're senate republicans and is maybe the senate republicans and the democrats there are talking and hopefully then we can get something back that would allow the speaker the freedom to put a bill up on the floor to have a vote and then i think you see a bipartisan vote if that happened. if we have all kinds of amendments, etcetera, do we create a bill that goes back to the senate and we don't have much time to debate amendments, etcetera. >> it is at the top right now. >> i want to make sure we don't overlook a bit of news. you were saying you know john boehner will be re-elected, regardless. does that mean you won't permanently challenge him -- >> i don't think he has to worry about that. one of the things we're going to look carefully at is suspending issues. the president and the senate has not been willing to engage on this spending issue to grasp the part of the cliff that i think is probably the most dangerous part and that is this debt and deficit issue. and a lot of us in the house side really want to look at that very seriously. so that will be part of what we scrutinize when the senate sends it over. >> i'm wondering what month, what year. now i'm starting to think that it's just -- the atmosphere is not right for anything happening, even -- i don't know, even in the first two months of the year or a grand deal of any consequence. >> and i'm one of the democrats that signed on. i thought i would want to do a grand deal. i don't want every two months to go back and be on a cliff, having another debate about the debt ceiling and, you know, we're back here again. i don't think the american people want that. i think if there was a conversation between the president and the speaker a week or two ago before the speaker went to plan b about a bigger deal with the president did make concessions, where he's willing to talk about social security and this some things that i and others of my colleagues were not happy with, but that broke down. i would hope we get to a point where we can have a deal and i think the speaker's plan b was to show that at least some of the republicans would say that would be some revenue, the big breakdown had been no taxes on any americans. and i think that's a problem. >> i want to ask congresswoman decapito, who we know is very smart because she went to duke, president obama said he's not going to negotiate on the debt limit and white house aides tell me he's serious about it. what are you going to do when the debt limit rises in a couple of months, you want to negotiate on that and he says, sorry. >> i find it interesting that tim geithner says the debt limit is up at the end of the year. really? throw that one out. he voted not to let president bush have the right to raise the debt limit. i think this is a check and balance that we need to have 234 congress. i don't think he's going to get his way on that. i think the speaker did -- >> do you think he will buckle and negotiate? >> he's going to have to because he needs that. and i think that does provide leverage in the congress. it is ugly and i don't want to go through it again,=/$fnñ"3g-u our thanks to congresswoman capito and congressman meeks. >> i think you have an opportunity while you're there to negotiate all this yourself. you could play the role of -- anyway, comments, questions about anything you see here on squawk, send us an e-mail. >> the fiscal cliff, what would a new tax plan mean for small companies and their employees? we're going to get that story when we return. as we head to a break, check out the futures. we have red arrows. they continue to be red arrows. nasdaq off about 12.5 points, the s&p 500 off a little over 6.5 points. we have more coming up on squawk after this break. 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[ male announcer ] the way it moves. the way it cleans. everything about the oral-b power brush is simply revolutionary. oral-b power brushes oscillate, rotate and even pulsate to gently loosen and break up that sticky plaque with more brush movements than manual brushes and even up to 50% more than leading sonic technology brushes for a superior clean. oral-b power brushes. go to oralb.com for the latest offers. >>> welcome back, everybody. happy new year. obviously, if you look at the top of the screen, you're going to see green arrows. but remember, you have to subtract the futures from fair value and take a look at where things really stand. there are red arrows when you look at the math on this. the dow futures are down about 6/0 points. that is nowhere near as bad as people were expecting, given how close it is to going over the fiscal cliff and how it looks like we don't have any sort of a solution just yet. >> sad to say. as the fiscal cliff ticks down, we're going to the real world to talk about small businesses gearing up for tough times and what lies ahead in 2013. joining us now are darren harris, ceo of primarywells schools and derek jones, ceo of bookkeeping express. give us a sense if you could, darren, wa is happening to your business as a function of the fiscal cliff. you're a private school that the franchise -- how is this going to change things for you? >> sure. we have roughly about 250 locations across 17 states. much of our growth comes from our franchise owners reinvesting in their staff. and hiring. and second and third locations. so what we're seeing is an apprehension of them to go and invest in additional locations. they're doing it. we're going at record numbers, but at the same time we're hearing across our system apprehension and fear of what is that going to impact their business and how it's going to impact their business. >> what kind of contingency plans have you made if you have made any? >> definitely we have made contingency plans in trying to create ways for reinvestment for those who want to grow so we can continue to create jobs. we've created investment into online training systems so they can give back to the teachers. so we've tried to create multiple incentives out of franchise owners and have them hiring people and creating jobs for free. >> now, you do prenursery. are parents acting any differently? are they buying less program? >> fortunately for our business, we've seen growth in parents. but what we're hearing and what we're seeing is they're switching to more of a part-time care. pokes in this country are committed to education and educating their children. the last thing they want to go is child care. but they're going to more part-time care. that creates a different view to our franchise owners and how they hire people and hours that they can provide to staff that they're limiting. >> greg, am i wrong in saying that i would assume if you're in the bookkeeping business, this on a short-term basis has to be a good thing? >> it actually is a great thing. yeah, we hit the market in two different areas. one, we obviously offer an opportunity for a group or individual to get into the business and start a career or wealth builder. but obviously, we have a touch with the end users, the 30 plus million around the u.s. and soon to be canada, as well. and supplying that small business owner with not only a bookkeeping service, but also data and analytics to help them run the business and make some business decisions as they grow. >> now, you're a franchise model. if, for example, whether it's dividends or capital gains and that goes up, does that change the game for you? is that going to significantly shift your business? >> well, you know, for us, bookkeeping express, our growth has been phenomenal last year and way ahead of the curve. but franchising in itself, you know, there's over 160 projected new jobs being created by the franchise industry. there's 18 million jobs rmted to franchising throughout the u.s. so for us, we've actually seen an uptick. the small business community is in flux. they don't know what to do. they're sitting back waiting tore things to happen. our friends up on the hill make decisions and they're relying on hopefully sound business advice, which is what booking express brings to them. >> we're going to leave it there, guys darin, greg, thank you for joining us this morning and we'll see whether we go over the cliff together. we can hold hands. >> it is the final trading day of 2012. that mean we'll be watching closely to see what happens today. will it pay to be bullish or bearish in 2013 or at least for the start of the year? we have pimco's mohamed el-erian later on in the program. stick around. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. 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[ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. zero heartburn. and don't get heartburn in the first place! are you flo? yes. is this the thing you gave my husband? well, yeah, yes. the "name your price" tool. you tell us the price you want to pay, and we give you a range of options to choose from. careful, though -- that kind of power can go to your head. that explains a lot. yo, buddy! i got this. gimme one, gimme one, gimme one! the power of the "name your price" tool. only from progressive. >>> welcome back, everybody. if you are just waking up, again, the dow futures are lower, but not by as much as you might expect. right now, about 61 points below fair value. s&p futures at this hour look like they would open down by about 6.5, or 7 points if the market were to open right now. we'll see how things shore up as we get closer to the opening bell on this last trading day of the year. also when we return, we have the nation headed towards the cliff. we need twice the firepower this morning. so we have both tony pratto and jerry bernstein joining us on the fiscal fun right after this. good morning, guys. happy new year to you both. plus we have the vice chairman of the budget committee, congressman tom price of georgia. he'll be giving us his take on the negotiations. the way it moves.e announc] the way it cleans. everything about the oral-b power brush is simply revolutionary. oral-b power brushes oscillate, rotate and even pulsate to gently loosen and break up that sticky plaque with more brush movements than manual brushes and even up to 50% more than leading sonic technology brushes for a superior clean. oral-b power brushes. go to oralb.com for the latest offers. that if you pick three people, odds are they'll approach everything in their own unique way -- including investing. so we help clients identify and prioritize their life goals. taking that input and directly matching assets and risk preferences against them. the result? a fully customized plan. we call it goals driven investing. you have unique goals. how about a portfolio specifically designed to achieve them? ♪ expertise matters. find it at northern trust. [ male announcer ] how could switchgrass in argentina, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >>> looking over the fiscal cliff. >> we're running out of time. >> if congress doesn't act, then everybody's taxes go up. >> can the leaders rise above to avoid a financial fiasco? your money's at stake and we're following the latest details from the nation's capital. >>> joining us this morning, former white house insiders tony fratto and jerry bernstein. >> and the wait and see game for investors. get the wall street fratsy that could boost your financial future. have a happy new year. the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ >>> good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin here at cnbc headquarters. joe kernen and john harwood are in washington, d.c. this morning and our guest host on "squawk" today, former white house deputy press secretary, tony fratto, and former economic policy adviser to vice president biden, jared bernstein from the center on budget and policy priorities. both of them are cnbc contributors. happy new year. >> happy new year. happy to be here. >> on fiscal cliff day. >> we need you here because there's a lot to talk about. we need some solutions. investors obviously are keeping watch on the fiscal cliff negotiations. we've been watching the futures this morning and believe it or not, it's not as bad as you might have expected. the dow futures are down by about 62 points, s&p futures off by just over 7 points. nasdaq down by about 14. we're going to hear more from john in just a moment. he has been reporting that there are some encouraging signs in those talks between gop leaders and vice president joe biden. maybe that's what the people in the market are holding out hope for, too, that there is some final solutions reached just before we go over the cliff. lawmakers did get some work done over the weekend, despite failure to solve the fiscal cliff issue. senators approved antitrust attorneys william barrett to head the justice department ate antitrust division. also party leaders agreed on a farm bill ext
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Dec 26, 2012 4:00pm EST
still no deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff. all signs are pointing to more talks for lawmakers to try to hash things out. should wall street bet on a fix before january the 1st or is that wishful thinking? >> let's find out. let's speak to our guests. welcome to all of you. brian, where do you make of where we're going right now? you're the one that remains sort of neutral. you're buying this market right now, aren't you? >> well, we're pretty much staying put. we're recommending that our clients have a substantial allocation to equities. i mean, bear in mind, it's been a pretty good year despite it being an election year, despite the fiscal cliff and ongoing problems in europe. the market has done better than it has usual done. what's changed? i think there will be continued political turmoil and slow growth but that's, particularly given valuations, may not be a bad year for equities as all. >> i'm going to add to that list having been a good year for the stock market. also had a lot of recovery in the housing market as well. do all these good things, all this progr
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Dec 26, 2012 3:00pm EST
about the fiscal cliff, economists talk about the fiscal cliff and politicians talk about the fiscal cliff. we're wondering whether mom and pops at home talk about the fiscal cliff. is a lack of a budget deal actually spooking shoppers out on main street? >> it is. walmart told us 75% of their customers have cite that had they are worried about the fiscal cliff. mandy, you and i were on last week talking about the luxury retailers and we called out saks saying business pre-holiday was particularly weak. what are the people in the stores telling me all week, saying that this is the worst pre-christmas they had seen in over a decade, and part of that was because their consumers are worried about the fiscal cliff, so note to the government. it does matter. >> yeah, but that's, as you say, part of it. laura, what else is going on? it just felt like we were going into a lackluster season here. what happened? >> i mean, there's been some discussion about weather trends as well, but whether or not we go over the fiscal cliff, consumers think next year we'll see higher taxes and lower entitlements. the only place in our space where we see a very significant fiscal cliff hit is aspirational customer, so the
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 9:00am EST
moving lower, as concerns about the fiscal cliff talks weigh on the market. talks about progress toward a deal sent the down lower by almost 521 points on friday. s&p up almost 14% on the year. it's interesting, this year we've had so many unnatural phenomenon taking place, whether it's the effects of the fed's monetary policy, year end, fiscal cliff tax related issues. the motivations are a little bit different this time around than they were last year. >> yeah. it's not as pressing, some would argue. some were actually saying on friday, maybe it would have been better if the markets had a sharper sell-off because that could have forced the lawmakers to do something as opposed to leave for obama to have a hastily called friday evening press conference saying, you know what, congress, you have ten days, you go work it out. it's doable. >> it's been an interesting year. of course, we started off so well, in terms of expectations for economic growth. we had an election this year, too. i think that's another thing that is sort of the key. we hit europe again as we had the last two years previously. bu
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 4:00am EST
deal to avoid the fiscal cliff as the government starts taking steps to buy more time before the u.s. hits the debt ceiling. the yen hits a two-year low against the dollar as the new japanese government battles to weaken currency. exports are rising, pushing the nikkei to its strongest gain in 20 years. .shares of toyota are heading higher after the u.s. settled a class action lawsuit. the $1 billion payment is already priced in. okay. welcome to "worldwide exchange." plenty of news to watch out of washington. all of this week, we thought it would be a quiet one. but i won't be inside the beltway if they want to get something done. the u.s. will hit the $16.4 trillion debt ceiling come monday. in a letter to congressional leaders, geithner says treasury will begin taking steps to save the government about $2 billion. geithner says it's harder to predict a time frame because the ongone fiscal cliff talks make it difficult to forecast next year's budget. among the measures treasury will take including suspending state and local government securities and investments in the federal emplo
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 6:00am EST
of frustrating quest to rise above what needs to be done to get a fiscal cliff deal signed, sealed and delivered. but first, an american military hero has died. norman schwarzkopf passed away in florida yesterday. popularly known an stormin' norm norman. he liberated kuwait from saddam hussein. general schwarzkopf was 78. we can see you carl. we can totally see you. come on you're better than this...all that prowling around. yeah, you're the king of the jungle. have you thought about going vegan carl? hahaha!! you know folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. how happy are they jimmy? happier than antelope with night-vision goggles. nice! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the sta
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 2:00pm EST
and find out the buzz. seema modi is manning the nas desk. >> a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff thought it was a certainty at the beginning of the month. today not so much. senator reid's comments and a dismal report triggering a selloff that a lot of pessimists had expected sooner than today because they didn't think the deal on the cliff would be done. the dow dropping below 13,000 for the first time today sings the beginning of this month. now negative as well for the month of december. trading at a three-week low with all 30 of the dow components in negative territory. with the dow below 13,000 the s&p is notching up its fourth straight loss trading below a 50 day moving average and also hitting a three-week low. if investors are moving out of stocks, where are they moving into? safe haven. a treasury e.t. after saving a bid after investors have a secure place to put their money. gld or gold up. gold seen as a safe haven. so it, too, is benefitting from that rush or flight to quality, flight to safety. and then of course on the heels of very modest gains in the metal itself,
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 1:00pm EST
obama cutting short his annual vacation in hawaii to deal with the fiscal cliff. no sight of congressional leaders. they're not in town. investors getting a little bit nervous. will congress get it together in time? no talks that we know of are imminent. it was by at least one measure, the weakest holiday retail sales growth since the financial crisis back in 2008, but could a post-christmas holiday sales bounce be around the corner? >>> and what a year it has been for tech. gadgets and gizmos. apple, facebook, microsoft all have big news. will 2013 be a lucky year for the sector? which tech titans might lead the new trends? simon hobbs is in at the new york stock exchange. >> good afternoon. when president obama arrives back in d.c., can he prevent america falling over the fiscal cliff? house republicans haven't yet called their members back to washington. our chief political correspondent, john harwood, is with us. john, this feels very much like it might be the calm before the storm in more way than one. >> it could be if we go over the cliff and the storm would be generat
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 7:00pm EST
cliff dealing in sight. now we are talking about hitting the debt ceiling on december 31. what are the top trades for 2013? cnbc contributor michael farr. good to see you. great to have you here. >> thanks, michelle. wonderful to be with you. >> have you heard about what timothy geithner said tonight? >> you are way better looking than kudlow. i know you heard that. this is a much better screen to look at from our glide flattery will get you everywhere. did you hear secretary geithner sent out a note saying that -- letter, official letter saying we are going to hit the debt ceiling monday. lee business days notice. >> perfect. >> what will that do to the markets tomorrow? >> you and i talked about this is a couple of years ago when we hit hit it in july and i was dead wrong. i was entirely dead wrong. i thought congress would make sure we wouldn't lose our aaa debt rate. >> and we did. >> and -- yeah. i figured certainly logically that yields would go up on bonds. and that the stock market would fall and just the opposite happening. what happen this time to the markets still have p
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 7:00pm EST
back into session for sunday night. that stokes investor hopes for a fiscal cliff deal and this coming just a few hours after harry reid's comments sent the dow into a tailspin. we have complete coverage in this developing story which is happening tonight as we speak. also, as supplies from the obama team, ep achieve lisa jackson stepping down. can the coal companies finally breathe a sigh of relief? guess what happened in britain when the uk banned handguns. the surprising result that could change the gun control debate. "the kudlow report" start ises right now. >>> the big news tonight, still the developments in washington on the fiscal cliff, eamon javers joins us with the details. >> good evening, meshel. capitol hill sources tell cnbc that congressional leaders are planning to go to the white house tomorrow to meet with president barack obama and it is not entirely clear at this point when that meeting will take place and details are still being hammered out and we saw today a blistering series of rhetorical jabs from one side to the other and it's not clear as a result of
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 5:00pm EST
in another attempt to agree on a fiscal cliff deal. amon j eamon jav everyoers has the sto. >> i'm keeping an eye on my iphone here, i just got an e-mail from a source that says there might be even further news this evening, so, waiting for a status update on that. but we did get some news today and that news, as you say, was that the house of representatives is going to be called back early. they are coming back on sunday at 6:30 p.m. what they're going to do when they get here, we don't have any idea. but we had a fascinating series of dueling press conferences, dueling floor speeches, i should say, by senate republican and democratic leaders. the republican leader, mitch mcconnell, really put the blame on democrats, but he did seem to indicate that there may be further negotiations that are ongoing here, possibly even as we speak. take a listen to mitch mcconnell earlier this afternoon. >> the truth is, we're coming up against a hard deadline here and as i said, this is a conversation we should have had months ago. and republicans aren't about to write a blank check for anything
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 6:00am EST
fiscal cliff deal. meantime, treasury warns the government will hit its legal borrowing limit by monday. it's thursday, december 27th, 2012 and "squawk box" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. becky continues to have the day off today. our guest host today is bob broska. house speaker john boehner urging the senate to come up with a passable fiscal cliff solution. he's promising to at least consider any bill that the upper chamber produces. senate majority leader harry reid now expected to base any legislation on a bill passed earlier this year to continue tax breaks for households will incomes below $250,000. a senate bill would likely contain an extension of expiring unemployment benefits. and the other big news of the morning, treasury secretary tim geithner unveiling a plan to buy time under the debt ceiling. in a letter to congress, geithner saying that treasury is going to begin taking steps this week to delay hitting the government's 16$16.4 trillion borrowing limit. treasury will take s
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 9:00am EST
president cuts short his hawaiian vacation to deal with the fiscal cliff, just five days to go until we go over. >> threatening both coasts with workers snubbing up best and final contract offer. >> and more on the home front. we'll have more on the data and whether it can keep one of the best performing sectors of 2012, home builders going in 2013. >> data showing what some experts say is the slowest growth in spending since the 2008 recession. according to mastercard, spending polls units through christmas eve, retail sales rose just .7% from the year before. the national retail federation says it is forecasting a 4% jump in sales. we'll continue to get trickles of data as we progress through this last week. it is still an important week, the final week before the new year in terms of retail sales for these guys. >> historically positive the last five days of the year and blends into the first couple of days of the new year. generally get a nice year-end effect. we'll get claims tomorrow. new home sales tomorrow. chicago pmi on friday. but this idea that retail is soft, was it the
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 4:00pm EST
case you're keeping score, only three days to go until we hit the fiscal cliff. no deal yet but we're getting lots of mixed messages. >> that's a good way to put it. >> mixed messages around washington today with some animosi animosity, but here's what senate majority leader harry reid had to say just a little while ago. listen. >> i say to the speaker take the escape hatch that we've left you. put the economic fate of the nation ahead of your own fate as speaker of the house. millions of middle class families are nervously watching, waiting and counting down the moment until our taxes go up. >> well, senator kay bailey hutchison is republican from texas, first elected back in 1993 and served in leadership positions and been an outspoken nor to the budget and defense. senator, great to have you with us here. >> we sure are going to miss you, one of the great group of moderates. >> maybe you're relieved to be leaving at this point. >> thinking of new year's eve here in washington and thinking, you know, this is the time to exit. >> go out while things get a little mess over there
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 4:00am EST
dealing with right now in the fiscal cliff is a prime example of it. what i'm arguing for are maintaining tax cuts for 98% of americans. i don't think anybody would consider that some liberal, left wing agenda. it used to be considered a mainstream agenda. and it's something we can accomplish today if we simply allow for a vote in the senate and in the house to get it done. the fact that it's not happening is ancation of, you know, how far certain factions inside the republican party have gone where they can't even accept what used to be centrist mainstream positions on these issues. i'm an optimist. we try every other option before we finally do the right thing. after everything else is exhausted, we eventually do the right thing. and i think that's true for congress, as well. and i think it's important for americans to remember politics have always been messy. people have been asking me a lot about the film "lincoln" and -- >> is this your lincoln moment? >> well, no. look, i never compare myself to lincoln and, b, the magnitude of the issues are quite different from the civ
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 5:00am EST
. the little guys out under the trees. >>> the deadline to avoid the fiscal cliff is just a week ago. on fri, president obama said he still hoped to work out a deal to keep taxes for 98% of americans from going up on the first of january. but both sides aren't talking and congress is in recess until after christmas. republicans aren't holding out any hope for a deal. >> i would hope that we would have one last attempt here to do what everyone knows needs to be done, which is a larger plan that really does stabilize the debt and get us moving in the right direction. >> if we get down to the end of this year and the oil only choice we have is to save taxes going up on the middle class, then i would support that. but i wish we had a comprehensive bill that dealt with spending and entitlement altogether. >> i believe the president senses a victory at the bottom of the cliff. >> some finger pointing. other republicans are now looking past new year's day to the next battleground. >> i will raise the debt ceiling only if we save medicare and social security and prevent this country from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in deb
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 12:00pm EST
going to be in the market is going to be in the cyclical stocks if you get a deal on the fiscal cliff. if not, then retail goes worse. we analyzed this last week and said there's big drag. >> so, doc, is the trade the prudent trade you have to take some money off the table in the retail space? the consumer, the data has shown to be good and then you get holiday numbers from master card that say we're only up .7%. >> i'll take any gains we can get. the fact that we're just about flat is a positive for me. obviously there's a pretty significant rotation and people are selling today in these retail names. you can see that because the volumes are pathetically low on the rest of the street. about 50% of normal activity so far to date whether it's options or stock or even futures. but this particular sector you look at the stocks, whether it's tiffany's, coach, or abercrombie & fitch, all of them are nearly trading full session volumes. they're certainly on track for that. it's the only sector in the market that is. there are other sectors that are moving, but you're not seeing any real dol
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 9:00am EST
2 million people who would lose about $300 a week if this fiscal cliff passes and there's no deal whatsoever. guys, back to you in d.c. >> all right. john harward, thanks for keeping us posted. we're about six minutes before the bell rings in the final session of 2012. let's bring in matt. good to have you with us. the futures are not too bad. we're coming off five straight losing streaks. on friday we saw the vix post the low of the session. what do you think it will happen today? >> i'm not going to put a lot of credence in the futures this morning. i think that's out of the picture for a lot of people. they didn't really notice it because it happened after the close. we're really not going to put any credence in it downstairs today. obviously everything has to do with what they're going to negotiate starting at 10:00. funny thing is, why 10:00? why are we waiting so long? this is a question that everyone has down here, and everyone has across the country. >> you guys are in here at 7:00 a.m. >> yeah, why not start then? this is an important issue. obviously this is the only issue right no
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 1:00pm EST
constituent, if you can't come together and form a deal to get us over the fiscal cliff, then the next debate is the debt ceiling debate. how. >> it is very contentious. the president is right, we shouldn't play that game. up until last year we never did play that game. that is essentially butting a g put /* putting a gun to the head of the economy. we can't hold the nation hostage every time we go through this. i think we do need a longer term deal that agreeses the structural problems. >> congressman, we will let you get back to work. >> sue, tense times for many. down here on floor of the nyse, taking a break to remember some of the traditions here on the floor on new year's eve. let's get over it mary thompson. >> hey, simon, before we do, a quick market update. popping an retreating after the announcement of the statement president obama will make at 1:30. can you vietnam action in the dow industrials. caterpillar and ge suggesting return. the indication moving to session lows today. these are the groups where the enclave right now. now, i will turn it over to jim and the rest of
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 6:00am EST
. it's a familiar one. the looming fiscal cliff. aides for both parties now saying a partial agreement or patch probably the most that we can be expecting before january 1. >> i think we're dealing now with whether or not we can put off the -- the increase in tax rates. that's really all we can deal with now. >> the next session of the senate is now set for tomorrow. the house has nothing on its schedule for this week. members have been told they could be called back within 48 hours' notice. meantime, and this i guess is also the big news, the white house saying the president's going to be flying back from vacation in hawaii today. a lot of people making something of that. i don't know what it means ultimately. >> well, one thing it means -- >> a show of something. >> if i had to get back from hawaii at a minute's notice, you know what it would be. the president will have an easier time of it, i think. right? >> i noticed a couple of news reports saying the cost of the last-minute flight is about $250 -- >> he's the president, he's allowed. he's not going to be like in -- you know, transferring in san francisco or l.a. or something. and hoping that flight isn't -- i think he can jus
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 5:00pm EST
there is a deal, technically avoids going over the fiscal cliff, stops all the other stuff from happening. it's a disaster because we had seven weeks to do a big deal, which would have reassured the markets, the world, that we could function as a government and make important compromises that we could take shared pain as well as shared sacrifices and all we've done even if we get out of this by december 31, we kicked the can down the road to another day where we'll have to face the harsh realities that you can't always get what you want. we democrats are going to have to accept significant entitlement reform, some of which is needed to preserve the programs we hold dear. republicans are going to have to accept 1$1.2 or three trillion n new revenue. the numbers have to add up, so we can get down to a reasonable percentage of gross national product. >> governor, when you watch these politicians on both sides of the aisle for that matter, take to the cent floor, point fingers, then we have this meeting where nothing has been done, how frustrating is this and is it a symptom of the gridlock that we have in d.c. right now that we can't get a deal done as we te
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 2:00pm EST
month. of course we now have to deal with the fiscal cliff. also, the nasdaq is the percentage winner with a gain of 15% this year. which, by the way, is exactly the same as australia's asx. >> two minutes into the show, already an australia reference. shameless. >> shameless. >>> all right. could be a humbug christmas for retailers this year. the market today saying that things look a little more naughty than nice for many of the names. i want to look at the wall behind me because these are a bunch of red names, right? the bottom performers in the s & p 500 today, most of them are retail. look at that. coach, the single worst performer in the s & p 500 today. you've got ralph lauren, amazon, abercrombie & fitch, tiffany, the gap. fossil. urban outfitters. the limited. look at that. macy's on that name as well. many of the worst performers today are the retailers, perhaps on the back of that mastercard survey that we referenced earlier. by the way, though, as our long-lost friend herb greenberg might say, the biggest gaining retail stock today, yes, my friends, jcpenney. it is
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 4:00am EST
especially if we get the super bowl deal in fiscal cliff that we're talking about that should come in the beginning of february when voters realize how much smaller their paychecks are and mgm is having a year end clearance sale at the citi center property. monetizing. monetizing. then there's the balance sheet. this may be the single most important point of the story. when jim took over mgm's balance sheet was hideous. it was just awful. in 2009 the company was in vital of its debt covenants. mgm had to pay down debt by selling treasure island, one of my favorite casinos, for $775 million. the company was given time to get its house in order. fast forward to earlier this month. mgm announced 4.8 billion refinance of debt. the company is paying sdoun its inner secured notes. they replaced it with new lower rate senior notes and term limits. this is what you really look for. this is a huge, huge deal. okay. for caesar's i want to buy bonds but here i want to buy the common. mgm stock popped on the news of the refi. i think it puts a floor in the stock at ten and two bucks below where it is
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 1:00pm EST
turn on my television the talk of the fiscal cliff but the thing that's actually driving us off the fiscal cliff is our debt and the explosion in the entitlements and yet that's the very thing we avoid dealing with. you ask about what we should do? look, those on the republican side on the house have voted for the ryan budget and others which actually gave a vision of how to put market forces into entitlement spending. if you don't like the idea, give us another suggestion, but don't do what nancy pelosi has done where saying spending cuts are off the table. in that case we're negotiating with ourselves again. >> i'm sorry, we have to leave it there. congressman, have a pleasant flight back across the country tomorrow evening. >> it's always a joy. >> all right. >>> let's hear from the other side. representative allyson schwartz is a democrat from pennsylvania. michelle, jump in. >> she sits on the ways and means and budget committees. thanks so much for joining us, representative. you just heard that whole discussion. why is it, madam, that the democrats seem so resistant to any kind of reform to entitlements? >> well, actually, that's not true. as you certainly know, the president offered very
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 7:00pm EST
called fiscal cliff. i'm going to bring in the republican from the great state of caps cannes. always great to have you on the show. first of all, will the majority of republicans vote for this deal even though i'm not sure what the deal is on the sequester side? >> is there is an interest of solving the problem i think what you said is how most republican ares feel. we need to know the details of the deal and i'm on the side if it is going to be postponed it is going to be paid for by reduced spending elsewhere. that is the wrong direction to go. so while there is an interest and believe that we are getting close to a deal, there is yet enough unknown that you can't answer your question at this time. >> it troubles me, if you run off the sequester and run off the tax revenues to make up the difference which is what the president said today in his goofy press conference. if that happens, i want to ask you if this thing can actually pass. too quick, 51 votes and 60 votes and democrats and republican ares can the two come together? is that how it might work? >> my guess is that this could be a 51 vote margin issue. whether it is 51 or 60, the president's remarks he is peered to me that
CNBC
Dec 24, 2012 6:00am EST
year also means we are just days away from the fiscal cliff, however, and that's the bad news. and looming tax hikes, spending cuts, all of that. both sides warning a very big deal becoming a bit more unlikely. >> and my one bit of advice to speaker boehner is this. you cannot pass a bill with just republicans. on a broad thing like this, you need both. and he has put himself with plan b and sort of an impossible position. he has to get these hard right goes to go along with him. and he and the president were going to say we're going to pass a deal with the majority of republicans and the majority of democrats in the house and senate, we would get a mainstream deal. >> i think we're going to fall out of the fiscal tree. the big deal for the big deal is at the debt ceiling. that's when we will have leverage to turn the country around. >> congress is now out of session for the christmas holiday. but expect it to be back thursday. joe, we talked to some of the senators and congress last week saying will you come back from vacation? some of them pretend like they weren't going, but i think they really were. >> if boehner's leadership is in question now, chuck schumer, there'
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 6:00pm EST
avoid the fiscal cliff. who will compromise and will a deal get done to rescue the american economy? stay with cnbc for full-time reports to see who will rise above. who will compromise and will a ♪ >> all night i've been talking to you about the new diversification, a way to diversify by strategy, not just sectors so you can thrive in any market. look, we still believe in the old kind of diversification by group, but we've also got a new prism going here. remember, you need a high-yieldner your portfolio, a big dividend-paying stock for downside protection and the massive multi-year gains that come from reinvesting the dividends, and you must reinvest. second, you need a way to profit a whole lot when the market is in good shape. sometimes it is, and still potentially keep delivering gains if things get worse which is why you must have exposure to growth, preferably a high quality secular growth stock where the earnings estimate is a powerful momentum and then a speculative stock, something that trades for less than $10, a company left for dead by big money managers on wall stree
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 4:00pm EST
to an aide that said house gop caucus meeting is not principally about the fiscal cliff. it's mostly going to be about sandy relief money from the superstorm. the cliff will come up, but the source said we are not going over any potential deal because there isn't one and the senate hasn't acted yet. >> but even if they're intending to talk more about sandy relief, don't you think the fiscal cliff issue is going to kind of come up? >> of course it's going to come up, but my only point is the meeting -- that's not what the meeting is about. it's a further indication that -- from the house of representatives that they don't consider this thing ripe enough that they're going to bolt and move on it tonight. >> that'll please new jersey governor chris christie and governor cuomo of new york. but you don't think that's a head fake to try and lower expectations? or not to raise them needlessly on the fiscal cliff? >> look. >> we sound skeptical, don't we? >> yes. but we're not that far from 5:00. and we're not that far from midnight. knowing the way the senate acts, the fact the senate leaders have not announced a deal. i don't think it's a trech to say that the house at this point is standing back and saying we haven't moved the ball yet.
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 9:00am EST
a band-aid deal, not a grand bargain on lawmakers, to avoid the fiscal cliff, before that january 1st deadline. these are some of the sectors that we're keeping watch on. financials were among the worst performing sectors yesterday. as we look at them, they are extending those losses today. they've been a very strong performer in 2012, but concerns about the cliff are having a big impact on this group. taking a look at the commodity stocks, dollar strength putting pressure on this group as well. the dollar is one of the areas where you're seeing some green in today's session. commodities weaker across the board. we are seeing strength in crude oil, though. it is up slightly in today's trade. we're also, of course, watching the vix. yesterday it spiked above that 20 mark and that was something that hadn't happened in about five months. this, of course, is an index of fear among investors. you can see it spiking a little bit higher. we'll see where it moves at 3:00, and after that, of course, if we get any news about the talks that are taking place this afternoon at the white house.
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 3:00pm EST
fiscal cliff. >> back to you very much, mary. four more days to the deadline. can a deal get done. congressman harris joining us now from baltimore. i'm going to talk about your plan in a moment, sir, but let me ask you about the word that we got in the last hour about the house reconvening sunday night. can you shed some light on any significance that may have. what have you heard? should we get our hopes up for sunday evening, or not? >> just got a conference call an hour ago with the speakership and leadership and that's only to get ready for anything coming over to the senate. the senate usually takes a couple of days to pass a bill. haven't even started working on one so the earliest they could have something over to the house would be sunday and the leadership will give its members 48 hours notice tomorrow and get us back in town sunday night. >> are you hearing that the senate's working on something that could come your way by then? >> there's a rumor that the president has taken mrmr. boehne mr. boehner's plan "b" and added unemployment insurance. i'm sure the senate will
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 2:00pm EST
, should we go over the fiscal cliff? >> well, brian, it's not an ideal situation. certainly i think if you could have both sides of the aisle rise above, as you guys have said, and come to some kind of a balanced deal, it would be great. given the alternatives right now, it's not that bad of a deal because if you look long term, the government spending has been about 20% of gdp. today that's 25%. revenues have been 18% of gdp. today that's 15.4%. it's both a spending issue and a revenue issue. so at least the cliff resolves the revenue issue. certainly it does it more than we needed it to. it also has to involve spending. at least we get the revenue side taken care of. >> it totally feels as if all of this discussion of taxes is a distraction to get away from the big issue of spending. andy i want to take you up on the issue of a credit rating downgrade. we had that in 2011 in the summer from s&p. the markets didn't seem to care. would they care next year either? >> well, you know, i think you're absolutely right. markets initially care if s&p downgraded but then they came quickly back. one of the things you have to factor in is the federal reserve is buying every treasury you can think of. >> bingo. >
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 1:00pm EST
. good way to lay out the situation. investors acting on their fiscal cliff nerves. this is the first time since the dow has dipped. a deal has been priced in. a lot of people thought something was going to happen. harry reid said we're probably going over the cliff. check out the wall street fear index. they have spiked above 20 for the first time since july. if this is what we're facing, how much worse can the fall get? jackie laid it all out, right? the average individual will have a lot less money to spend and we are a consumer-driven economy. a lot of action down there on the floor. >> people excited. >> is the market acting in a way that surprises you or down the surprise you based on the fact that it looks like we're going to go over? >> it's not acting in any way i shouldn't think it should, let's put it that way. what was surprising was last week's rally. we knew we were going to come into this. oil is rising. >> there was a lot of coombaya. we're still talking. >> right. >> they're not talking. >> it's a bit like christ mags shoppi -- christmas shopping. they're getting paid to do it. it might be better if we do. if
CNBC
Dec 31, 2012 12:00pm EST
when they realize the deal was this big. >> all right, well, regardless of how the fiscal cliff discussions turn out, bill gross isn't looking for much when it comes to equity returns next year. he is joining us live from pimico headquarters in california. nice to see you, happy new year. >> thank you, scott. same to you. >> stocks and bonds returning less than 5%. unemployment remains 7.5% or higher. why so glum? >> well, you know, with bonds only yielding 1.7%, the 5% or less call is not hard there. i think stocks in 2013 depend on two primary things. one, real economic growth, which was 2% or less. and second of all, the fed. at this point ben bernanke isn't rumplestiltskin. even if this cliff deal is inacted, we'll say good luck in a month with the debt ceiling. in terms of the real economy and stocks, profits importantly have benefited tremendously in recent years from lower interest expense and low growth wage. so at some point the tail winds are going to end. >> you guys were expecting 5% in stocks for 2012, obviously the s&p 500 has done 11.5% heading into today with a w
CNBC
Dec 27, 2012 12:00pm EST
because i do believe once twee go past the fiscal cliff concerns we're going to get a deal sooner or later in the latter part of january. that will revive the overall trade. >> kathy, nice to see you. thanks for coming on. >> my pleasure. >> kathy lien. >> the trade, it's more when you're talking about currencies. it's an investment. it's dangerous to trade it on a cyclical basis. >> yesterday you were talking about buy japanese exporters. >> that's a secular change i'm talking about. i think throughout 2013 you play for a weaker yen. you take the exporters, toyota motors which has had an excellent run from '75 to '91. you continue to play that from the long side. how about komatsu. komatsu japanese industrial that will sell throughout europe, throughout asia. that's also a good name that on 2013 you play for the long side. >> all right. coming up, get the year off to a great start. the top stock market best for 2013 when we come back. >> announcer: money in motion, currency trading sponsored by fxcm. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade
CNBC
Dec 26, 2012 5:00pm EST
fiscal cliff. my guess is, in past decembers, they have not that kind of thing to deal with in the way we do right now. >> president comes back to washington, he'll get on a flight in just a couple of hours, we'll be back at 7:00 east coast time in washington tomorrow, assuming the weather allows air force one to get through all of that. in many teen time. and then, presumably, maybe some of the negotiations can get back on track at that time. in the meantime, the dow down 24 points today. that's it for us. thank you for watching. >> and "fast money" starts right now. stay tuned to cnbc. >> we'll see you tomorrow. >>> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. retail wreck. santa delivered coal for most today. should you be betting on a bounce back? the global race to print money is on. and we've got the best ways to play japan's easy money. and 2013 trades. top picks in an uncertain world also "fast money" goes fast forward into next year. first, to our top stories. five days to go until the fiscal cliff and t
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 12:00pm EST
as a signal to sell more. i think we are going over the fiscal cliff and the market thinks so and sometime in the first year things get revolved retro act toiv 2012. the market is accustomed to that and learned to deal with it. >> now you know how our guys are making money but the question is how about you? are you buying treasuries into the cliff? head to futures now.cnbc.com. vote in our poll. make your voice heard ere. scott, back over to you. >> thanks so much. have a good weekend. see you on the other side. only one guy to go to on this. he is the author of "unhedged." >> "unhedged." >> what is the trade here? >> the trade is i don't want to be short treasuries at least in too big a fashion going into the fiscal cliff. but, man, that is going to be -- if they pop that is going to be the last hurrah. i want to get short both hands. >> all right. ahead on "halftime" a round of hold 'em or fold 'em with the year's biggest winners and losers but first we debate whether 2013 will finally give facebook investors gains. one stock two opinions. you know what's coming up. the silicon valley trail blazer gives us her tech picks for the new year. ann winblad when we come back. >>> next we cover the day's balan
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 4:00pm EST
cliff. they are meeting with the president and the treasury secretary timothy geithner, and they are trying to hash out a deal. but reports that the president has nothing new on the table has ended up spooking wall street in a big way just in the last hour, and as bill said we finished down near the lows of the day, down about 157 points for the dow. settling up right now. down what, about 165 at the very low, bill? >> i think so, yes. >> and the nasdaq finishing down 25 points and the s&p off by 15, a fifth straight day in the red. well, it is the last friday of 2012. it's in the books. check. still no deal in sight and no new offer either on the table from the president as eamon javers told us a little while ago. what now for the markets? we have our guests and our very own rick sell sebak with us. rick, let me get to you, first of all, because you're here on the set. what now for the markets? >> what now for the markets? it's going to be up or down dramatically which makes it challenging for all investors. are we going to have resolutions? are we headed over the cliff to give pain to the shorts in the investors
CNBC
Dec 28, 2012 4:00am EST
the clock is ticking down with just four days now until the u.s. goes over its fiscal cliff. will lawmakers be able to put aside their differences and hammer out a deal to stave off most big tax hikes for the most americans? we'll head to washington next. >>> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." >> president obama calls congressional leaders to the white house in what could be the last chance to restart talks before the u.s. falls off the fiscal cliff next week. >>> a lackluster trading week of the year, but european equity markets are setd to post double digit earns for 2012. >>> and italy sold 6 billion ur he rows of longer dated paper. >>> and japan says other countries have no right to lecture japan on its currency policy. instead, calling for the u.s. to seek a stronger dollar. >>> let's check in on futures again and see if i can get the math right this time. dow jones industrial is poised to shed about 50 points at the open. similar declines with the nasdaq and the s&p 500. this would continue a string of lows which we've seen over the last four trading sessions. better than 2% of a drop for the nasdaq, which is also down about .8% for the month
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